The following economic awareness entry is based on short-term events and therefore should not be taken as information towards making investment decisions, which are of a long-term nature. It is only meant to provide clarity regarding current economic events, as there is often a large degree of incorrect information dispersed through the media or other sources.
Economic Awareness: Stocks Jump After Inflation Gauge Cools
A Friday surge pushed stocks solidly into positive territory last week, ignited by cooling in an inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve.
Stocks were flat for much of last week amid a batch of new earnings, a 0.25% interest rate hike, and strong economic data. After beginning with gains, stocks lost momentum following the Fed’s expected rate-hike announcement on Wednesday. A bounce on Thursday sparked by a positive mega-cap tech company earnings reversed after bond yields increased.
Stocks recovered strongly Friday on the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index, which fell to its lowest level in two years.4
Much of the market action was related to earnings results. With 44% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 78% have exceeded Wall Street forecasts.5
Expectations of a recession were high coming into 2023. Last week may have erased this recession narrative overhang.
Second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data released last week was one big reason why. Economic activity expanded by 2.4%, which was above the forecast of two percent and represented an acceleration from its first quarter GDP of 2.0%. Consumer spending was a major driver of that expansion, rising 1.6%.6
Joining the recession-deferred camp this week was Fed Chair Powell, who stated that the Fed was no longer forecasting a recession.
This Week: Key Economic Data
Tuesday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
Wednesday: Automated Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report.
Thursday: Jobless Claims. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index.
Friday: Employment Situation.
Source: Econoday, July 28, 2023
This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings
Monday: Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)
Tuesday: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), Pfizer, Inc. (PFE), Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU), Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK)
Wednesday: CVS Health Corporation (CVS), Qualcomm, Inc. (QCOM), PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL), Shopify, Inc. (SHOP), Albemarle Corporation (ALB), Emerson Electric Co. (EMR), Humana, Inc. (HUM)
Thursday: Apple, Inc. (AAPL), Block, Inc. (SQ), Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD), Amgen, Inc. (AMGN), Cigna Group (CI), Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT), ConocoPhillips (COP), Booking Holdings, Inc. (BKNG), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN)
Friday: EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG)
Source: Zacks, July 28, 2023
"I have found the paradox that if I love until it hurts, then there is no hurt, but only more love."
– Mother Teresa
Who Qualifies for the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit?
Let's outline who the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) defines as a qualifying person under this care credit:
Tip adapted from IRS.gov7
Healthy Summer Tips
Staying healthy this summer will help you enjoy the season even more. Here are some of our favorite healthy summer tips:
This word signifies a gap between hills or mountain ranges. Yet remove just one letter, and it signifies a gap between buildings. What is this six-letter word?
Last week’s riddle: Sometimes you pass me slowly, yet other times I fly by. Sometimes I slip away. Regardless of how slow or fast I am, one thing’s certain: when I’m gone, I’m gone for good. So what am I? Answer: Time.
Taktshang (Tiger's Nest Monastery), Kingdom of Bhutan
Footnotes and Sources
2. The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2023.
3. The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2023.
4. CNBC, July 28, 2023.
5. CNBC, July 27, 2023.
6. CNBC, July 27, 2023.
7. IRS.gov, May 1, 2023
8. Prevent Cancer Foundation, April 24, 2023
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