The following economic awareness entry is based on short-term events and therefore should not be taken as information towards making investment decisions, which are of a long-term nature. It is only meant to provide clarity regarding current economic events, as there is often a large degree of incorrect information dispersed through the media or other sources.
Economic Awareness: Stocks Rally, Despite Recession Concerns
Prospects of cooling inflation powered a rally in stock prices last week despite growing recession concerns.
Declining energy and food prices and falling bond yields signaled a potentially improving inflation outlook, buoying investor sentiment. The rally in stocks was most powerful on the first and final trading days of a holiday-shortened week. Stocks turned a bit choppy mid-week as investors digested Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Senate appearance but resumed their momentum on Thursday and rallied Friday as rate-hike expectations eased.
Though the weekly gain was a welcome respite from the market’s downward trend, declining bond yields and falling food and energy prices can also be interpreted as signs of slowing economic growth, which may represent a headwind for corporate earnings in the months ahead.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told members of the Senate Finance Committee that the Fed is committed to lowering inflation and moving quickly to do so. He conceded that a recession could result from the Fed’s inflation-fighting efforts and acknowledged that some of the forces driving inflation (e.g., supply chain, war) are out of the Fed’s control.4
Perhaps the most exciting part of his testimony was what he didn’t say, which was a definitive statement on future hikes. Instead, Powell told lawmakers that he “anticipate[s] that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate.” Before his testimony, the Fed published a new research paper that found a greater than 50% chance of recession in the next four quarters.5
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: Durable Goods Orders.
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence.
Wednesday: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate for Q1).
Thursday: Jobless Claims.
Friday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index.
Source: Econoday, June 24, 2022
This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings
Wednesday: General Mills, Inc. (GIS).
Thursday: Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ), Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA).
Source: Zacks, June 24, 2022
"You can't win every week."
– Caryl Churchill
Get Educated on Education Credits
Two education credits are available to American taxpayers: the American Opportunity Tax Credit (AOTC) and the Lifetime Learning Credit (LLC). The IRS has lots of information about these two credits on their site, but here are some helpful highlights:
* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.
Tip adapted from IRS.gov6
Healthy Roadtrip Snacks
Summer is the season for road trips! Whether taking a short drive from your house or heading off on a cross-country adventure, many families are packing up the car for some time away.
One of the best parts about road trip are the snacks, but they aren’t always the healthiest. Luckily, there are many easy snacks you can prepare for your trip. Skip the chips at the gas station and snack on these healthy road trip snacks instead:
Tip adapted from Healthline7
In a drawer are six pairs of red socks, four pairs of white socks and five pairs of blue socks. In total darkness, how many socks would you have to grab to be certain you had a matching pair?
Last week’s riddle: It has 18 legs, is uniformed, walks and runs on grass and artificial turf, and catches flies. What is it? Riddle answer: A baseball team.
Four Peaks, Gila County, Arizona
Footnotes and Sources
2. The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2022
3. The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2022
4. The Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2022
5. The Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2022
6. IRS.gov, March 20, 2020
7. healthline.com, February 26, 2022
Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.
Please consult your financial professional for additional information.
This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
Copyright 2022 FMG Suite.
June 27, 2022: ENJOY MORE Weekly
June 29, 2022