The following economic awareness entry is based on short-term events and therefore should not be taken as information towards making investment decisions, which are of a long-term nature. It is only meant to provide clarity regarding current economic events, as there is often a large degree of incorrect information dispersed through the media or other sources.
Similar to recent weeks, international events continued to sway markets: Concerns about trade disputes affected investor behavior. Meanwhile, escalating conflict in Syria may have weighed on people's minds.
As we track these developments, we want to share insight about another important occurrence from last week: the beginning of corporate earnings season.
1st Quarter Corporate Earnings Season
1. Expectations remain very high
Analysts anticipate a particularly strong earnings season. Thomson Reuters data predicts that S&P 500 companies' profits were 18.6% higher in the 1st quarter of 2018 than in 2017. If accurate, this increase would be the largest since 2011.
So far, data seems on track. According to The Earnings Scout, 1st-quarter earnings growth is currently at 26.8%.
2. Banks outperform but stocks drop
On Friday, 3 major banks released their reports - and each beat projections for earnings and revenue. Despite this positive news, however, their stocks experienced sizable declines that contributed to overall market losses.
Why would strong quarterly results create stocks losses?
The markets anticipated this positive performance and had already priced it into the shares. As a result, any less-than-ideal news seemed to outweigh the expected earnings and revenue increases. In particular, 2 facts drove losses:
- 1 bank may have to pay a $1 billion penalty
- All 3 banks experienced slow loan growth
We are in the early stages of earnings season, and many major corporations still need to release their reports. In the coming weeks, we'll continue monitoring these developments to better understand our economy. As always, please contact us if you have questions about how the data affects your finances and life.
Monday: Retail Sales, Housing Market Index
Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production
Thursday: Jobless Claims
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Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.
The Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index is a 96-bond index designed to represent the market performance, on a total-return basis, of investment-grade bonds issued by leading U.S. companies. Bonds are equally weighted by maturity cell, industry sector, and the overall index.
The S&P US Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index contains US- and foreign issued investment grade corporate bonds denominated in US dollars. The SPUSCIG launched on April 9, 2013. All information for an index prior to its launch date is back teased, based on the methodology that was in effect on the launch date. Back-tested performance, which is hypothetical and not actual performance, is subject to inherent limitations because it reflects application of an Index methodology and selection of index constituents in hindsight. No theoretical approach can take into account all of the factors in the markets in general and the impact of decisions that might have been made during the actual operation of an index. Actual returns may differ from, and be lower than, back tested returns.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate. The index is made up of measures of real estate prices in 20 cities and weighted to produce the index.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
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